华东师范大学(哲学社会科学版) ›› 2017, Vol. 49 ›› Issue (3): 145-154.doi: 10.16382/j.cnki.1000-5579.2017.03.017

• 城镇化与城市发展研究 • 上一篇    下一篇

人口老龄化、出生率与房价——基于房地产市场的区域特征

王先柱1, 吴义东2   

  1. 1. 安徽工业大学商学院, 安徽马鞍山 243032;
    2. 安徽工业大学金融学
  • 出版日期:2017-05-15 发布日期:2017-05-20
  • 作者简介:王先柱,经济学博士,安徽工业大学商学院教授(安徽马鞍山,243032);吴义东,安徽工业大学金融学硕士研究生。
  • 基金资助:
    教育部哲学社会科学研究重大课题攻关项目“建立公开规范的住房公积金制度研究”(项目编号:14JZD028);国家自然科学基金项目“应用大数据识别和控制住房公积金扩面风险研究”(项目编号:91646126)、“基于多维度大数据的住房抵押贷款风险管理决策支持研究”(项目号:91546113);安徽工业大学研究生创新研究基金项目“住房公积金制度的国际经验及教训”(项目编号:2015117)。

Population Aging, Birth Rate and Housing Price: Based on the Regional Characteristics of the Real Estate Market

WANG Xian-zhu1, WU Yi-dong2   

  • Online:2017-05-15 Published:2017-05-20

摘要: 通过系统聚类和距离判别对我国31个省份房地产市场发展水平进行等级划分,基于此对各区域人口老龄化、出生率以及房价之间的关系进行定性描述和趋势对比,并依据各地区面板数据展开实证研究,最终总结出人口老龄化、出生率及人口增长与房价之间的“三角关系”:人口老龄化总体上会抑制房价上涨,而人口出生率总体上则会助推房价上涨,且两者均存在区域性“逆转”现象;人口老龄化的加深与出生率的下降抑制了人口增长,两者的综合效应使得房价从人口增长角度来说在可预见的未来存在下跌空间。因此,对房价的合理控制与引导需要关注人口结构因素,包括鼓励人口流动,调整住房需求;合理管控人口增长,改变房价预期。

关键词: 人口老龄化, 房价, 出生率, 人口结构, 区域特征

Abstract: This paper classifies the development level of real estate market in 31 provinces in China through system clustering and distance discrimination, and then carries out qualitative description and trend comparison on the relationship of regional population aging, birth rate and house price. Together with the empirical research of the regional panel data, this paper shows the "triangular relationship" of population aging, birth rate (as well as population growth) and housing price as follows: the short-term population aging will restrain housing price, the short-term birth rate will boost the rising of house price, and both of them have a regional "reverse" phenomenon; the aging of the population and the decline of the birth rate restrain population growth, and from the perspective of population growth, the "neutralization effect" between them will make housing price decrease in the foreseeable future. Therefore, reasonable control and guidance on housing price need to pay attention to demographic factors, encourage population mobility, help to discharge the "flood" of house price, make a plan of population growth and lower the anticipation of housing price.

Key words: population aging, housing price, birth rate, population structure, regional characteristics