华东师范大学(哲学社会科学版) ›› 2015, Vol. 47 ›› Issue (4): 93-99.doi: 10.16382/j.cnki.1000-5579.2015.04.012

• 人口与社会保险研究 • 上一篇    下一篇

中国人口政策的经济效应:OLG 模型和 Panel 数据分析

吴信如,王静,王文婷   

  1. 华东师范大学金融与统计学院   上海, 200241
  • 出版日期:2015-07-15 发布日期:2015-09-17
  • 通讯作者: 吴信如,王静,王文婷
  • 作者简介:吴信如,王静,王文婷
  • 基金资助:

    本文得到 2013 年国家社科重大项目“推进经济结构战略性调整的重点、难点与路径研究”( 13&ZD016 )的支持,成为其研究成果的一个部分。

The Economic Effect of Population Policy in China: Based on OLG Model and Panel Data Analysis

WU Xin-ru & WANG Jing & WANG Wen-ting   

  • Online:2015-07-15 Published:2015-09-17
  • Contact: WU Xin-ru & WANG Jing & WANG Wen-ting
  • About author:WU Xin-ru & WANG Jing & WANG Wen-ting

摘要: 基于世代交叠( OLG )模型,采用 30 个省份 1983 — 2012 年的面板数据,研究我国人口政策对经济增长及社会福利的影响,其模型分析与实证研究结果一致地表明:我国过去 30 多年实施的计划生育政策显著地推动了人均收入的增长,但是,也导致人口的老龄化趋势,带来潜在的养老资源不足和老年福利损失的问题。 基于 2010 年人口普查数据进行的未来 70 年人口变动模拟显示,“单独二胎”政策作用微弱,不能改变人口结构老化的趋势,而全面“二胎化”政策将改善和稳定我国未来的人口结构,这对稳定劳动力供给和养老、幼教等多方面的需求起关键作用,并由此助推人口、经济、社会的持续协调发展。 因此,我国立即研究实施全面“二胎化”的人口生育政策,是十分必要的。

关键词: 人口生育政策, 经济效应, OLG 模型, Panel 数据分析

Abstract: Based on the two-period overlapping generation (OLG) model and the panel data from 1983 to 2012 of 30 provinces, this paper investigates the impact of China’s population policy on the economic growth and the social welfare. The model analysis and the empirical investigation results consistently indicate that over the past 30 years the implementation of the family planning policy prominently promoted the growth of average per capita income. Nevertheless, it gave rise to the trend of the population aging, causing the shortage of the potential endowment resources and elderly welfare loss. The simulation of the population movement in the next 70 years based on the 2010 population census data reveals that the “selective two-child policy” will have little impact on the trend of aging population structure, while the general two-child policy will ameliorate and stabilize China’s population structure in the future. This will play a crucial role in many aspects such as the stability of the labor supply, the providing for the aged, and the preschool education, and thus boost the sustainable and coordinated population, economy and society development. Accordingly, we come up with the propose that it is necessary and urgent for China to consider the implementation of the general two-child policy immediately.