华东师范大学(哲学社会科学版) ›› 2013, Vol. 45 ›› Issue (6): 132-139.

• 金融问题探讨 • 上一篇    下一篇

股权溢价的宏观经济学解释 ——源自中国A股市场的证据

李巍,姚秋萍   

  1. 华东师范大学商学院,上海,200062
  • 出版日期:2013-11-15 发布日期:2014-02-24
  • 通讯作者: 李巍,姚秋萍
  • 作者简介:李巍,姚秋萍
  • 基金资助:

    本文为国家自然科学基金项目(70873041)、教育部人文社科规划后期项目(11JHQ032)以及上海市教委科研创新项目(11ZS42)的阶段性成果。

A Macro-Economic Explanation of the Equity Premium: Evidence from China’s A-share Market

LI Wei &YAO Qiu-ping   

  • Online:2013-11-15 Published:2014-02-24
  • Contact: LI Wei &YAO Qiu-ping
  • About author:LI Wei &YAO Qiu-ping

摘要: 中国A股市场是否存在股权溢价之谜一直存在争议。在考虑货币流动性、总体税收以及一般物价水平等宏观经济变量对过剩消费比率继而消费行为习惯影响的基础上建构分析框架,其实证估计的投资者相对风险厌恶系数落于合理区间(0,10)之内,修正了市场收益率与个体消费增长率之间存在负相关而导出的与事实相悖的相对风险厌恶系数,成功解释了A股市场的股权溢价特征,从一特定视角论证了中国证券市场并不存在所谓的股权溢价之谜。上述结论可使投资者对十多年来A股市场的表现和特征有一清晰认识,从而正确把握市场走势。

关键词: 股权溢价, 相对风险厌恶系数, 宏观经济变量, 中国A股市场

Abstract: Whether China’s A-share market exists “equity premium puzzle” has always been argued with controversy. Based on considering the impact of macroeconomic factors, such as currency liquidity, overall tax revenue and the price level on the surplus consumption ratio, and then consumer behavior habit, we construct an analytical framework. It shows that the estimated relative risk aversion coefficient of investor lies in a reasonable range (0, 10). This result revises the implausible value of relative risk aversion coefficient according to the negative correlation between the market rate of return and individual consumption growth. It also successively explains the equity premium characteristics of the domestic A-share market and hence demonstrates that China stock market does not exist the so-called “equity premium puzzle” from a particular perspective.

Key words: equity premium, relative risk aversion coefficient, macroeconomic factor, China&rsquo, s A-share market