华东师范大学学报(哲学社会科学版) ›› 2020, Vol. 52 ›› Issue (2): 171-180.doi: 10.16382/j.cnki.1000-5579.2020.02.016

• 城镇化与城市发展 • 上一篇    下一篇

中国房地产企业转型路径研究——基于logistic回归分析

张泓铭1, 吉艳2   

  1. 1. 上海社会科学院应用经济研究所，上海,200020;2. 上海社会科学院产业经济学
  • 发布日期:2020-03-24
  • 通讯作者: 吉艳(通讯作者),上海社会科学院产业经济学博士研究生
  • 作者简介:张泓铭,上海社会科学院应用经济研究所研究员、博士生导师(上海,200020)。
  • 基金资助:
    中国房地产协会2016年立项课题"中国房地产业转型研究"（项目编号：20160001）。

On the Transformation Path of China's Real Estate Enterprises: Based on a Logistic Regression Analysis

ZHANG Hong-ming1, JI Yan2   

  • Published:2020-03-24

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摘要： 房地产企业转型是新常态下我国房地产业发展面临的紧迫任务。基于理论分析和观察总结所形成的房地产企业转型的路径视角和基本路径，结合对全国75家房地产企业的调研数据，运用logistics回归模型对房地产企业转型路径进行实证检验，分析房地产企业转型的影响因素，其结果发现：（1）房地产企业转型的基本路径可分为4类，即产品市场路径、产业链路径、跨产业链路径、管理系统优化路径；（2）房地产企业中，中小企业倾向于选择产品市场路径和产业链路径，大型企业则更倾向于选择跨产业链路径以实现多元化发展，管理系统优化则是各类房地产企业转型路径的共同基础；（3）房地产企业转型受企业规模、产业延伸、销售方向、品牌影响等多种因素的共同影响，但不同类型房地产企业选择何种路径的影响因素是存在差异的。由上可见，房地产企业应适时调整发展理念及经营策略，寻找新的适合自身条件的发展方式和路径。

关键词: 房地产业, 房地产企业, 企业转型路径, logistic回归分析

Abstract: The transformation of real estate enterprises is an urgent task that the development of China's real estate industry faces in the New Normal. Outlining the basic paths of the transformation based on theoretical analysis and empirical observation, combining the survey data of 75 real estate companies in the country and using logistic regression model to empirically test the transformation path of real estate companies, this paper analyzes the influencing factors of real estate company transformation. The results show:(1) The basic paths of real estate enterprise transformation can be divided into 4 categories, namely, the product market path, the industrial chain path, the cross-industry path, and the management system optimization path; (2) Among real estate enterprises, small and medium-sized ones tend to choose the product market path and the industrial chain path, while large-sized ones are more inclined to implement diversified development by the cross-industry chain paths, and management system optimization is the common path basic for the transformation of various real estate companies; (3) The transformation is affected by a variety of factors such as enterprise size, industry extension, sale direction, and brand influence, and there are also differences in the factors that affect the path chosen by different types of real estate companies. From the above, real estate companies should adjust their development concepts and business strategies in a timely manner to find new development methods and paths suitable for their own conditions.

Key words: real estate industry, transformation of real estate enterprises, transformation path, logistic regression analysis