华东师范大学(哲学社会科学版) ›› 2010, Vol. 42 ›› Issue (2): 77-82.

• ●金融问题探讨 • 上一篇    下一篇

人民币汇率变动的价格传导效应：理论与实证

方显仓 何雯雯   

  1. 华东师范大学商学院
  • 收稿日期:1900-01-01 修回日期:1900-01-01 出版日期:2010-03-25 发布日期:2010-03-25
  • 通讯作者: 方显仓 何雯雯

Price Pass-through Effect of Change in RMB Exchange Rate

Fang Xiancang He Wenwen   

  1. Business School, East China Normal University ShangHai 200241
  • Received:1900-01-01 Revised:1900-01-01 Online:2010-03-25 Published:2010-03-25
  • Contact: Fang Xiancang He Wenwen

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摘要： 我国是一个半开放经济体，通过建立汇率对进口价格和CPI的价格传导方程，并经过VAR模型对进口价格指数、消费者价格指数与本国市场的竞争程度、外国出口商的生产成本、实际有效汇率水平、货币供应量等变量之间的关系进行计量分析，可以发现，人民币有效汇率对我国进口价格和CPI的传递效应很小，并且汇率对进口价格的影响大于对消费者价格的影响，从而价格传递不完全；国外生产成本提高推动国内CPI，其作用大于汇率波动对CPI的影响。因此，从治理通货膨胀角度来说，我国没有必要盯住汇率，应实行更加富有弹性的汇率制度。

关键词: 实际有效汇率, 价格传递, 进口价格指数, 消费者价格指数

Abstract: Based on the fact that China is a semi-open economy, we formulate pass-through functions of import price and CPI to exchange rate respectively. We further analyze the relation among import price index, consumer price index, competition of domestic market, costs of product for foreign exporters, real effective exchange rate and money supply with VAR model. We reach the conclusion that the real exchange rate of RMB has weak pass-through effect on the import price and CPI. However, the effect of real exchange rate on the import price is stronger than that on CPI, which proves an incomplete price pass-through effect. The costs of product for foreign exporters have positive effects on domestic CPI, which is stronger than that comes from real exchange rate. In the aspect of curbing inflation, therefore, the government should implement exchange rate arrangement with more flexibilities rather than the pegged exchange rate.

Key words: Real Effective Exchange Rate, Price Pass-through effect, Import Price Index, Consumer Price Index