网络出版日期: 2021-03-26
基金资助
国家社科基金项目“人口结构危机背景下劳动就业新问题及对策研究”（项目编号：19BJY051）；中国海洋大学中央高校基本科研业务费专项项目“‘绿色+智慧’双驱动赋能中国海洋人才”（项目编号：202115001）
Does the Bubble of Housing Price Inhibit the Fertility Rate Recovery？：On the Dynamic Causality between Fertility Rate and Housing Price
人口与住房是关系到经济高质量发展与社会和谐进步的关键之一。通过解析生育率与房价之间关联的动态变化规律得出的分群体生育调整对策，将更具人口与经济协同发展的双向政策意涵。为此，选取2000—2018年长时间链条的住宅均价与出生率数据，采用拔靴分样本滚动窗口因果检验方法进行检验，其结果显示，生育率与房价的双向影响具有时变特点；生育率对房价的最终影响取决于财富效应与挤出效应的博弈结果；房价快速上涨在特定时间段内对生育率提升的抑制作用显著。政府相关部门可针对有房与无房两类城镇育龄群体及农村居民对症下药，包括适当放宽有购买能力、有房育龄群体的购房限制，给予贷款利率优惠及房屋改造补贴；因地制宜建设“稳租金”商品房，匹配育孩数量为无房育龄群体提供租金及购房优惠；完善农村地区宅基地灵活配置机制，从而击碎生育藩篱。
张樨樨 . 房价泡沫抑制了生育率复苏吗？——论生育率与房价的动态因果关系[J]. 华东师范大学学报(哲学社会科学版), 2021 , 53(2) : 164 -175 . DOI: 10.16382/j.cnki.1000-5579.2021.02.015
Population and housing are among the keys to the high quality of economic development and social harmony and progress. By analyzing the dynamic change law of the correlation between fertility rate and housing price, this paper argues that the policy of adjusting the fertility of different groups has more bi-directional policy meaning of the coordinated development of population and economy. This paper selects the data of average housing price and birth rate from 2000 to 2018 with a long-time chain, and uses the rolling window causality test method of boot-splitting sample to test. The results show that the two-way influence of fertility rate and housing price is time-varying. The final effect of fertility rate on housing price depends on the game result of wealth effect and crowding out effect. The rapid rise of housing price has a significant inhibiting effect on fertility rate in a specific period of time. Relevant government departments can take appropriate measures for urban people of childbearing age and rural residents with and without a house, including appropriately relaxing the purchase restrictions for people of childbearing age having a house or the ability to buy a house, granting them preferential loan interest rates and housing reconstruction subsidies. We will build commercial housing with “stable rent” in line with local conditions, and provide rent and purchase discounts for people of childbearing age according to the number of children they have. We shall also improve the flexible homestead allocation mechanism in rural areas to break down fertility barriers.
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