录用日期: 2022-10-14
网络出版日期: 2022-12-03
基金资助
国家社科基金项目“人口老龄化与货币政策有效性研究”(项目编号:20BJY243);上海市哲学社会科学规划一般课题“国际金融中心建设中的中国货币政策传导效力及其模式转型研究”(项目编号:2019BJB006)
Structural Monetary Policy,Uncertainty of Economic Environment and Interest Rate Transmission Efficiency
利用债券市场微观数据,采用双重差分模型考察结构性货币政策实施对货币市场短期利率向债券利率传导效率的影响,并将经济环境不确定性纳入统一框架展开分析,其结果表明,结构性货币政策的实施显著提升了货币市场短期利率向债券利率的传导效率,而经济环境不确定性则降低了货币市场短期利率向债券利率的传导效率,联合系数检验表明经济环境不确定性削弱了结构性货币政策实施对这一利率传导效率的部分正向提升作用,使得债券利率对货币市场短期利率的敏感性有所降低。多种稳健性检验及平行趋势检验均证实了以上结论的可靠性。异质性分析发现,上述影响在不同交易所上市和不同久期的债券之间存在显著差异,表现为只对在上海证券交易所上市以及修正久期在2年及以下的债券是成立的,而对在深圳证券交易所上市和修正久期在2年以上的债券并不成立。
方显仓 , 何康 , 张卫峰 . 结构性货币政策、经济环境不确定性与利率传导效率[J]. 华东师范大学学报(哲学社会科学版), 2022 , 54(6) : 153 -165 . DOI: 10.16382/j.cnki.1000-5579.2022.06.017
Using the micro-data of the bond market, this paper takes advantage of a double difference model to examine the impact of the implementation of structural monetary policy on the transmission efficiency of short-term interest rates in the money market to bond interest rates, bringing the uncertainty of the economic environment into the unified analysis framework. The results show that the implementation of structural monetary policy makes the transmission efficiency of short-term interest rates in the money market to bond interest rates increase, while the uncertainty of the economic environment significantly inhibits this efficiency. The joint effect test found that the uncertainty of the economic environment weakens the positive impact brought by the structural monetary policy, making the sensitivity of bond interest rates to short-term interest rates in the money market decrease. Robustness test and parallel trend test confirm the reliability of the above conclusions. Heterogeneity analysis shows that the above conclusion is valid only for bonds listed on the Shanghai Stock Exchange and with a modified duration of 2 years or less.
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