华东师范大学学报(哲学社会科学版) >

2007 , Vol. 39 >Issue 2: 62 - 71

DOI: https://doi.org/10.16382/j.cnki.1000-5579.2007.02.011

金融问题研究

弹性通货膨胀目标制下的汇率与货币政策规则

  • 孙丽
展开
  • 华东师范大学 商学院, 上海 200062
孙丽(1972—), 女, 辽宁营口人, 华东师范大学商学院讲师, 博士研究生

收稿日期: 2006-05-10

  网络出版日期: 2007-03-25

收起

The Exchange Rate and Monetary Policy Rule in the Flexible Inflation Targeting

  • Li SUN
Expand
  • School of Business, East China Normal University, Shanghai 200062, China

Received date: 2006-05-10

  Online published: 2007-03-25

Fold

摘要

弹性通货膨胀目标制度框架下, 政策制定者是否只应关注国内变量而避免对外汇市场的波动进行任何方式的干预呢?利用6个明确实施通货膨胀目标制的开放经济国家的信息资料, 通过对汇率的非均衡是否会对货币政策操作产生系统性影响进行实证分析检验后发现, 虽然各国存在明显差异, 但是普遍来说, 这些开放经济国家的货币政策不会专门针对汇率变动进行系统的反应调整。换句话说, 利率规则中似乎不需要把汇率作为一个单独的变量予以考虑。但与此同时, 在货币政策决策过程中, 作为信息变量, 汇率还是一个很有价值的因素。

关键词： 弹性通货膨胀目标制; 汇率; 货币政策规则

本文引用格式

孙丽 . 弹性通货膨胀目标制下的汇率与货币政策规则[J]. 华东师范大学学报(哲学社会科学版), 2007 , 39(2) : 62 -71 . DOI: 10.16382/j.cnki.1000-5579.2007.02.011

Abstract

Under a flexible inflation targeting regime, should policymakers avoid any reaction to movements in the foreign exchange market? Using data about four advanced open-economy countries explicitly carrying out an inflation targeting regime, this paper makes a positive examination of whether a real exchange rate disequilibrium systematically affects operations of monetary policy.Although there are some significant differences among those countries, the estimates indicate that exchange rates are generally not crucial to systematic monetary responses in inflation targeting and open economies.However, the exchange rate, as an information variable, is found to be valuable in the monetary policy-making process.

Key words： flexible inflation targeting; exchange rate; monetary policy rule

参考文献

1 Taylor, John B., The Role of the Exchange Rate in Monetary Poli-cy Rules, American Economic Review, 2001, 91(May): 263-267.
2 Ball, Laurence, Policy Rules for Open Economies, in John B. Tay-lor, ed., Monetary Policy Rules, Chicago, Illinois: University of ChicagoPress, 1999.
3 Svensson, Lars E. O., Open-Economy Inflation Targeting, Journal of International Economic, 2000, 50(1): 155-183.
4 Taylor, John B., Robustness and Efficiency of Monetary PolicyRules as Guidelines for Interest Rate Setting by the European Central Bank, Journal of Monetary Economics, 1999, 43(3): 665-679.
5 Taylor, John B., Discretion Versus Policy Rules in Practice, Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, 1993, 39: 195-214.
6 Obstfeld, Maurice and Kenneth Rogoff, The Mirage of Fixed Ex-change Rates, Journal of Economic Perspectives, 1995, 9(4): 73-96.
7 Clarida, Richard H., Jordi Galíand Mark Gertler, The Science ofMonetary Policy: A New Keynesian Perspective, Journal of Economic Litera-ture, 1999, 37(December): 1661-1707.
8 Batini, Nicolleta, Richard Harrison and Stephen Millard, Monetary Policy Rules for Open Economics, Bank of England, Working Paper, Septem-ber 2000.
9 Chen, Yu-chin, Kennety Rogoff, Commodity Currencies, Journal of International Economics, 2003, 60(May): 133-160.
10 Silvia Sgherri, Explicit and Implicit Targets in Open Economies, IMF Working Paper, WP/05/176, 2005.
11 Gal, Gertler and J. David López--Salido, European InflationDynamics, European Economics Review, 2001, 45(7): 1237-1270.
12 Clinton, Kevin, On Commodity-Sensitive Currencies and Inflation Targeting, Bank of Canada, Working Paper, 2001-3, Ottawa.
13 Bayoumi, Tamim and Silvia Sgherri, Deconstructing the Art of Central Banking, CEPR Discussion Paper 4675(London: Centre for EconomicPolicy Research), 2004.
14 Huang, A., D. Margaritas, and D. Mayes, Monetary Policy Rules In New Zealand, 1988-1998, Working Paper, University of Waikato, November 2000.
15 Bernanke, Ben S., Thomas Laubach, Frederic S. Mishkin and Adam S. Posen, Inflation Targeting, Princeton, New Jersey: Pinceton Uni-versity Press, 1999.
16 Taylor, John B. ed., Monetary Policy Rules, Chicago: University of Chicago Press, 1999.
17 Bernanke, Ben S. and Michael Woodford, The Inflation-Targeting Debate, National Bureau of Economic Research Conference Report se-ries(Chicago and London: University of Chicago Press), 2005.
18 Obstfeld, Maurice and Kenneth Rogoff, New Directions for Stochastic Open Economy Models, Journal of International Economics, 2000, 50(1): 117-153.
19 McCallum, Bennett and Edward Nelson, Monetary Policy for an Open Economy: An Alternative Framework with Optimizing Agents and Sticky Prices, Working Paper, Carnegie Mellon University, 2000.
20 Woodford, Michael, The Taylor Rule and Optimal Monetary Poli-cy, American Economic Review, 2001, 91(May): 232-237.
21 Christiano, Lawrence J. and Cristopher Gust, The Expectations Trap Hypothesis, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago Economic Perspectives, 2000, 24: 21-39.
22 Sack, Brian and Volker Wieland, Interest Rate Smoothing and Optimal Monetary Policy: A Review ofRecent Empirical Evidence, Finance and Economics Discussion Paper, No. 1999-39(Washington: Board of Gover-nors of the Federal Reserve System).
23 Walsh, Carl, Implications of a Changing Economic Structure for the Strategy of Monetary Policy, in Proceedings of the Jackson Hole Symposiumon Monetary Policy, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, pp. 297-348, 2003.
24 Woodford, Michael, Optimal Monetary Policy Inertia, NBER Working Paper 7261(Cambridge, Massachussets, National Bureau of Economic Research), 1999.
Options
文章导航

/

〈 〉