在对银行信贷、企业投资借贷和居民消费等行为进行建模的基础上, 就我国货币政策的效果进行一般均衡分析后发现, 银行垄断的市场结构不利于信贷供给增加; 预期通货膨胀(紧缩) 也不利于信贷供给和信贷需求的收缩(扩张); 由于降息的收入效应大于替代效应, 跨期消费选择引起内需不足, 消费下降。因此, 要强化货币政策传导效果, 必须完善金融体系, 消除通货膨胀或紧缩环境。

In order to study our country's monetary policy, we try to set up a general equilibrium model for a bank's credit behaviors, an enterprise's investment behaviors and residents' consumption behaviors.We demonstrate in theory that, on condition of general equilibrium, a market structure of bank monopoly is disadvantageous to the increase of credit supply; the domestic consumption demand is away from sufficiency because the income effect of reducing interest rates is greater than the substitution effect; an expected inflationary or deflationary situation is not helpful to reduce or increase credit supply and credit demand.So the effect of our monetary policy has been and will be inefficient.