关键词: 货币政策, 溢出效应, 政策博弈, 国际协调, TVP-SVAR模型

Abstract:

Under the background that the representative of the traditional economic variables has weakened,this paper creatively selects the asset price index to characterize the monetary policy operation,constructs the economic activity factor and the price level factor based on a large number of basic economic indicators,and studies the spillover effects of monetary policy between China and the US under the TVP-SVAR model.The empirical analysis finds that monetary policy has direct and indirect spillover paths,the policy spillover effects between these two countries is bidirectional,and it has different spillover intensity and persistence in different years.The results show that although monetary policy of "shifting one's troubles or difficulties on to neighbors" will contribute to the domestic economic development in the short term,it will be self-reliant in the long run due to the policy game with other countries.The gradual opening up of the economy has facilitated the domestic monetary policy optimization,but it also highlights the importance of international coordination,in order to achieve the maximum efficiency on the basis of cooperation.

Key words: monetary policy, spillover effects, policy game, international coordination, TVP-SVAR