中国工业部门贸易开放与碳泄漏效应研究——高低碳行业分类实证对比

doi:10.16382/j.cnki.1000-5579.2019.06.016

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

贸易开放与碳泄漏对实现我国减排目标具有重要影响。通过构建面板模型，实证分析工业部门所有行业的贸易开放对碳排放强度和排放总量的影响，验证碳泄漏存在性；同时，基于行业特征和结构差异推导投入产出模型，测算行业直接碳排放强度和净出口贸易隐含碳排放强度，分别作为标准划分高低碳行业，开展实证检验和对比分析，其结果显示：高净出口隐含碳排放强度行业和低直接碳排放行业的贸易开放度与碳排放强度之间存在倒U形的曲线关系，且影响拐点已经出现；低净出口贸易隐含碳排放强度行业不存在一般含义上的正的碳泄漏。实证结果的差异性证实了中国工业部门不同类型行业存在明显的结构差异，而且有些行业对应碳泄漏效应可能为负值。有鉴于此，中国可以充分发挥对外贸易开放改善环境的有益作用，在开放政策导向上发挥结构调整作用，采用行业环境规制差异性政策来约束高净出口隐含碳排放强度行业的发展。

关键词: 贸易开放, 碳泄漏, 贸易隐含碳, 低碳转型, EKC曲线

Abstract:

Trade openness and carbon leakage have an important impact on China's emission reduction targets. By building a panel model, this paper empirically analyses the impact of trade openness on carbon emission intensity and total emissions of all industries in the industrial sector, and verifies the existence of carbon leakage. Based on the industry characteristics and structural differences, the input-output model is deduced to measure the direct carbon emission intensity and intensity of carbon emissions embodied in net export, which are used to classify the high-carbon and low-carbon industries as the standard for empirical tests and comparative analysis. The results show that there is no positive carbon leakage in industries of low net export embodied carbon emission intensity. In contrast, there is an inverted U-shaped curve between trade opening and carbon emission intensity in industries of high net export embodied carbon emission intensity and industries of low direct carbon emission, and the inflection point has appeared. The differences of empirical results confirm that there are obvious structural differences among different industries in China's industrial sector, and some industries may have negative carbon leakage effects. So China can play a beneficial role in opening up foreign trade to improve the environment, play a structural adjustment role in the direction of opening up policy, and adopt the policy of industry environmental regulation to restrain the development of high net export carbon industry.

Key words: trade openness, carbon leakage, carbon emissions embodied in trading, low-carbon transformation, EKC Curve

张云, 刘枚莲, 王向进. 中国工业部门贸易开放与碳泄漏效应研究——高低碳行业分类实证对比[J]. 华东师范大学(哲学社会科学版), 2019, 51(6): 151-161.

ZHANG Yun, LIU Mei-lian, WANG Xiang-jin. On Trade Opening and Carbon Leakage Effect in China's Industrial Sector: Empirical Comparison of High-Carbon and Low-Carbon Industries[J]. Journal of East China Normal University (Philosoph, 2019, 51(6): 151-161.

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