华东师范大学(哲学社会科学版) ›› 2012, Vol. 44 ›› Issue (5): 92-101.doi:

• 房地产经济研究 • 上一篇    下一篇

我国房地产价格与通货膨胀的互动: 2002—2011年

1.施有文,2.马文杰   

  1. 1. 华东师范大学学报编辑部; 2. 华东师范大学商学院, 上海, 200062
  • 出版日期:2012-09-15 发布日期:2012-11-05
  • 通讯作者: 施有文,马文杰
  • 作者简介:施有文,马文杰

The Interactive Relationship between China’s Real Estate Prices and Inflation during 2002—2011

SHI You-Wen, MA Wen-Jie   

  • Online:2012-09-15 Published:2012-11-05
  • Contact: SHI You-Wen, MA Wen-Jie
  • About author: SHI You-Wen, MA Wen-Jie

摘要: 对2002—2011年10年间全国商品房平均销售价格指数和CPI数据进行比照分析后发现,我国房地产价格与通货膨胀的变动趋势关系较为复杂,故而有必要厘清两者之间的动态关系。为此,在理论剖析的基础上,对2002年1月至2011年12月我国房地产价格、通货膨胀率、广义货币供应量、短期利率以及经济产出等五个变量的月度数据建立协整方程及向量误差修正模型并开展相关检验和分析,其实证结果显示,在样本区间范围内,我国房地产价格与通货膨胀存在长期稳定的动态均衡关系;短期内房价波动对通货膨胀影响是微弱的,而通货膨胀对房价波动则有显著的正向影响。

关键词: 房地产价格, 通货膨胀, 互动关系, 向量误差修正模型

Abstract: By comparing the national average real estate prices index with CPI data from 2002—2011, we can find that the interactive relationship between China’s real estate prices and inflation trends is very complex. Therefore, it is necessary to clarify the dynamic relationship between them. In this respect, based on the theoretical analysis, we make a cointegration equation and a vector error correction model based on real estate prices, inflation rate, the general money supply, short-term interest rate and economic output in China from January 2002 to December 2011, and then proceed to make related test and analysis. The empirical result shows that: In the interval range of samples, there exists a long-term stable dynamic equilibrium relation between China’s real estate prices and inflation; in the short term, real estate prices fluctuation has a weak impact on the inflation, while inflation has a significant positive impact on real estate prices.

Key words: real estate prices, inflation, interactive relationship, vector error correction model