华东师范大学(哲学社会科学版) ›› 2014, Vol. 46 ›› Issue (5): 146-155.

• 经济学研究 • 上一篇    下一篇

经济转型中的潜在增长率变化与新一轮“开放促改革”的突破口

殷德生   

  1. 华东师范大学中国经济研究中心
  • 出版日期:2014-09-15 发布日期:2014-10-02
  • 通讯作者: 殷德生
  • 作者简介:殷德生
  • 基金资助:

    本文系国家社科基金重大项目“推进经济结构战略性调整的重点、难点与路径研究”（项目编号：１３＆ＺＤ０１６）、国家社科基金重点项目“中国潜在经济增长的源泉与结构变化的估计研究”（项目编号：１２ＡＺＤ０９５）的阶段性成果，并得到了教育部新世纪优秀人才支持计划（项目编号：ＮＣＥＴ１３０２０７）以及上海市“曙光计划”项目（项目编号：１２ＳＧ２７）的资助

The Changes of China’s Potential Growth Rate in Economic Transformation and the Breakthrough for New Round of “Promoting Reform through Opening up”

YIN De-sheng   

  • Online:2014-09-15 Published:2014-10-02
  • Contact: YIN De-sheng
  • About author:YIN De-sheng

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摘要： 经济结构战略性调整是我国加快转变经济发展方式的主攻方向；在经济转型与结构调整加速的当下，中国的经济增长率相对放缓，人们日益关注中国经济增长的内生动力和长期趋势。对中国经济增长趋势的判断，离不开对潜在经济增长率的估计。通过应用ＨＰ 滤波法、多变量状态空间法等经典方法估计中国潜在经济增长率发现，目前中国经济潜在增长率相对回落，从２００８ 年国际金融危机前的两位数回落到２０１２年的８％左右；考虑资本冲击因素后，潜在经济增长率的变化幅度扩大，近期下降程度较为明显，而资本冲击因素的影响取决于资本要素市场配置效率，因此，资本要素市场配置效率低是制约中国潜在经济增长率的重要原因。对中国经济长期增长动力的判断离不开如何向开放要动力、向改革要活力，中国新一轮“开放促改革”的突破口在于资本要素配置的市场化和全球化，并有中国（上海）自由贸易试验区作为先行先试基地。资本要素配置的市场化依赖于人民币对内对外价格的市场化，资本要素配置的全球化取决于人民币国际化和资本项目开放。

关键词: 潜在增长率；ＨＰ 滤波法；多变量状态空间法；&ldquo, 开放促改革&rdquo, ；资本要素配置

Abstract: Economic restructuring is the main direction for the transformation of China’s economic development mode. But in the process of economic transformation, China’s economic growth has relatively slowed. There is a growing concern about the endogenous growth momentum and long-term trends in China. With HP filtering method and multivariate state space method, this thesis finds out that the potential growth rate in China has relatively declined from the double-digit before the global financial crisis in 2008 down to about 8% in 2012. Lower capital allocation efficiency, together with capital supply shocks, is an important reason for the recent decline in potential growth rate. For the long-term economic growth momentum in China, the breakthrough of new round of “promoting reform through opening up” lies in market-oriented reform and globalization configuration of capital element, which can take China (Shanghai) pilot free trade zone as a test base. The market-oriented reform of capital element needs the liberalization of interest rate and exchange rate, while globalization configuration of capital element depends on RMB internationalization and capital account liberalization.

Key words: potential growth rate, HP filtering method, multivariate state space method, &ldquo, promoting reform through opening up&rdquo, , capital element liberalization