华东师范大学(哲学社会科学版) ›› 2015, Vol. 47 ›› Issue (5): 137-149.doi: １０．１６３８２／ｊ．ｃｎｋｉ．１０００--５５７９．２０１５．０５．０１５

• 经济学研究 • 上一篇    下一篇

省际旅游目的地市场潜力的影响因素及开发策略研究 
——基于空间面板模型的实证分析

冯学钢, 黄和平   

  1. 华东师范大学商学院，上海，２００２４１
  • 出版日期:2015-09-15 发布日期:2015-11-01
  • 通讯作者: 冯学钢, 黄和平
  • 作者简介:冯学钢, 黄和平
  • 基金资助:

    本文为国家社科基金重点项目“我国反季旅游市场潜力的区域差异与开发策略研究”（１２ＡＪＹ００８）的阶段性成果。

Influential Factors and Developing Strategies of Interprovincial Tourist Destination Market: An Experience Analysis with a Spatial Panel Model

FENG Xue-Gang, HUANG He-Ping   

  • Online:2015-09-15 Published:2015-11-01
  • Contact: FENG Xue-Gang, HUANG He-Ping
  • About author: FENG Xue-Gang, HUANG He-Ping

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摘要： ：“推—拉”理论中的“推”力解释了旅游者为什么要出游；“拉”力则解释了游客为何选择该目的地而非其他目的地。目的地“吸引力”的影响因素是决定旅游流流向与流量乃至流质的关键变量。在充分考虑空间关联效应的基础上，基于旅游目的地吸引力视角，选择影响旅游流流向和流量的６ 个关键变量，利用３１个省份２００４—２０１３ 年共１０ 年的面板数据，对各影响变量进行显著性检验和识别，结果表明，地理邻接和空间距离皆会对旅游流在各省份的分配产生影响；以旅游资源禀赋、气候舒适度以及交通条件等变量维度测算出的区域差异及目的地市场开发潜力，可为我国旅游流目的地市场开发和旅游流管控提供决策依据。

关键词: 旅游目的地, 旅游流, 市场潜力, 空间关联效应, 空间面板广义矩模型（ＳＰＧＭＭ Ｍｏｄｅｌ）

Abstract: While the “push” force in the “pushpull” theory explains why the tourists travel， the “pull” force explains why the tourists choose the destination instead of others. Factors concerning destination “attraction” constitute key variables for the direction， quantity and quality of a tourist flow. Based on the perspective of attractive power of tourist destination and full consideration of the spatial correlation effects， this paper chooses six key variables which affect the direction and quantity of a tourist flow， using 10 years of panel data from 2004 to 2013 of 31 province/cities/autonomous region， and identify the significance and impact of each variable. The results show that the geographical adjacency and space distance will have an impact on the distribution of tourist flows in each province， and the regional differences and destination market development potential can be measured in the dimension of tourism resources endowment， climate comfort， traffic conditions and so on， which can provide decisionmaking basis for tourist destination market development and tourist flow regulation.

Key words: tourism destination, tourist flow, market potential, spatial correlation effects, spatial panel GMM Model