网络出版日期: 2017-05-20
基金资助
国家自然科学基金项目“中国城市发展的金融化趋势及金融风险”（项目编号：NSF7161101095）、“中国城市住房供应模式变迁对居民住房选择行为的影响及经济社会效应”（项目编号：NSF71573166）、“快速城市化进程与住房公共政策：交互性与协调性发展研究”（项目编号：NSF71173045）；上海财经大学研究生创新基金（项目编号：CXJJ-2016-387）。
A New Test on the Relationship between Population Aging and Housing Price in China:From the Perspective of Housing Reform Dividend Affect
1998年房改之后，我国城市房价快速上涨，同期人口老龄化程度也在稳步上升，两者间是一种偶然，还是存在内在关联?通过构建住房价格均衡模型，在理论上推导出老龄化本应对房价存在抑制作用；利用我国1999-2013年的省级面板数据进行实证分析，则发现老龄化在样本期内对房价总体上存在抑制作用，但表现出明显的阶段差异性。这一发现可能与1998年城镇房改给这代老年人带来的一次性住房财富通过家庭代际转移逐步释放到住房市场有关。在特定阶段，老龄化对房价的抑制作用不明显，但随着时间推移，当房改红利消耗殆尽，老龄化的加剧仍会不可避免地抑制房价上涨。进一步的分样本研究初步证实了上述猜想。
胡明志 , 农汇福 , 陈杰 . 中国人口老龄化与房价关系再检验:基于房改红利视角的研究[J]. 华东师范大学学报(哲学社会科学版), 2017 , 49(3) : 132 -144 . DOI: 10.16382/j.cnki.1000-5579.2017.03.016
A soaring urban housing price coincides with a steady growing aging population in China after the housing reform in 1998. Is this correlation accidentally or intrinsically decided? A preliminary conclusion that population aging dampens housing price is drawn from a theoretical housing price equilibrium model. Findings based on Chinese province-level panel data from 1999 to 2013 and Threshold Model also indicate that the effect of population aging on housing price is negative as a whole, but shows heterogeneity in different stages. The major reason for this phenomenon may be the influx of old generation's housing wealth benefited from housing reform into the housing market through intergenerational transference. Therefore, the inhibitory action of population aging on housing price is dull in the special historical phase. However, population aging will inevitably curb the property price as the gradual exhaustion of reform dividend with time. Classified researches certify this conjecture.
Key words： population aging; housing price; housing reform dividend
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