网络出版日期: 2017-09-28
基金资助
国家社会科学基金重大项目"‘互联网+’推动经济转型机理与对策研究"（项目编号：15ZDC024）；国家自然科学基金面上项目"货币总量转向信用总量：全球虚拟经济与实体经济背离机理与宏观政策应对"（项目编号：71473279）
Is Monetary Policy Dependent on the Inside and Outside?:An Empirical Study Research from the Perspective of Spillover between Countries
在传统经济变量代表性减弱背景下，创新性地选取资产价格指数表征货币政策操作，基于大量基础经济指标构造经济活动因子与价格水平因子，并在TVP-SVAR模型框架下实证考察中美两国的货币政策溢出效应，结果发现，中美货币政策均具有直接与间接两种溢出路径，两国间货币政策溢出效应具有双向性，且不同年份呈现出不同的溢出强度与持续性。可见，即使"以邻为壑"的货币政策在短期内有助于一国国内经济发展，但长期看终将因其他国家的政策博弈而自食其果。因此，经济开放度的提升在为货币政策的国内优化提供便利的同时，也更加凸显出其国际协调的重要性，如此才能实现合作基础上的效益最大化。
关键词： 货币政策; 溢出效应; 政策博弈; 国际协调; TVP-SVAR模型
贾应丽 , 位雪丽 , 刘程程 . 货币政策需要“内外兼修”吗?——基于国家间溢出视角的实证研究[J]. 华东师范大学学报(哲学社会科学版), 2017 , 49(5) : 95 -105 . DOI: 10.16382/j.cnki.1000-5579.2017.05.012
Under the background that the representative of the traditional economic variables has weakened,this paper creatively selects the asset price index to characterize the monetary policy operation,constructs the economic activity factor and the price level factor based on a large number of basic economic indicators,and studies the spillover effects of monetary policy between China and the US under the TVP-SVAR model.The empirical analysis finds that monetary policy has direct and indirect spillover paths,the policy spillover effects between these two countries is bidirectional,and it has different spillover intensity and persistence in different years.The results show that although monetary policy of "shifting one's troubles or difficulties on to neighbors" will contribute to the domestic economic development in the short term,it will be self-reliant in the long run due to the policy game with other countries.The gradual opening up of the economy has facilitated the domestic monetary policy optimization,but it also highlights the importance of international coordination,in order to achieve the maximum efficiency on the basis of cooperation.
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国家社会科学基金学术期刊资助入选期刊