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Supply Chain Reshaping in the U.S. and Industrial and the Supply Chains’ Resilience of China’s Foreign Trade
Based on HS 6-digit product trade data, this paper conducts a statistical analysis on the resilience of China’s foreign trade industrial and supply chains (ISC) under the supply chain reshaping in the U.S. It shows that the import sources of midstream products in China’s foreign trade ISC are relatively concentrated and have poor resilience; the export demand side of downstream products is highly concentrated and dependent on the U.S. market and prominently fragile. For the key industry products’ industrial and supply chains reviewed by Biden government, the upstream import supply side of China’s agricultural and food production industries and the upstream import supply side and upstream export demand side of the pharmaceutical industry are relatively vulnerable. Moreover, the results derived from Triple Difference Measurement Model show that the U.S. supply chain review significantly promotes trade transfer of China’s key ISC products to the third parties and increases resilience, while it has no significant effect on the geographic diversification of China’s foreign trade. This means that the improvement in China’s key ISC resilience after U.S. supply chain review is mainly reflected in deepening trade links with third-party trade partners in the short term, rather than promoting the geographical diversification of foreign trade. Therefore, it is necessary to focus on the key industry products under the U.S. supply chain reshaping strategy, actively build a regional production and supply chain cooperation system, and expand the diversification of foreign trade structure. We should enhance our capacity for independent innovation, overcome the “stuck neck” technical problems on the import supply side, and strive to enhance the toughness and safety of China’s foreign trade production and industrial and supply chains, so as to promote the high-quality development of China’s foreign trade.
Guobing Shen , Yiping Wang . Supply Chain Reshaping in the U.S. and Industrial and the Supply Chains’ Resilience of China’s Foreign Trade[J]. Journal of East China Normal University (Philosophy and Social Sciences), 2024 , 56(4) : 155 -177 . DOI: 10.16382/j.cnki.1000-5579.2024.04.014
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