关键词: 人口不确定性, 人口转变, 概率人口预测, 政策规划

Abstract:

In an era of increasing global uncertainties, it is particularly important to gain a deeper understanding of the nature and sources of demographic uncertainty and its role in population projections and policy responses. It has been found that demographic uncertainty is an intrinsic attribution of the demographic system, and it tends to increase when it is intertwined with many uncertainties in modern society. Although demographic uncertainty cannot be completely eliminated, it is possible to deepen the understanding of uncertainty, effectively control the negative effects of demographic uncertainty within a knowable and controllable range, and give full play to uncertainty in the creativity of diversity. In the modernization process of China’s huge population, it is important to make full use of the advantages of technology, knowledge and governance to build a population and related policy system that is flexible and adaptable, so as to promote high-quality population development.

Key words: Demographic uncertainty, demographic transition, probabilistic population projections, policy planning