华东师范大学学报(哲学社会科学版) ›› 2026, Vol. 58 ›› Issue (3): 167-181.doi: 10.16382/j.cnki.1000-5579.2026.03.015

• 中国式现代化：构建新发展格局 • 上一篇    

长三角一体化背景下重点城市住房需求关联分析

严荣, 肖白雪, 张黎莉   

  • 出版日期:2026-05-15 发布日期:2026-05-30
  • 作者简介:严荣，上海市房地产科学研究院研究员（上海，200031）
    肖白雪，通讯作者，上海市房地产科学研究院助理经济师
    张黎莉，上海市房地产科学研究院正高级经济师
  • 基金资助:
    上海市住房和城乡建设管理委员会科研项目“长三角一体化进程中住房发展协同机制创新研究”（项目编号：沪建科2024-001-005）。

A Correlation Analysis of Housing Demand in Key Cities Under the Background of the Integrated Development of the Yangtze River Delta

Rong Yan, Baixue Xiao, Lili Zhang   

  • Online:2026-05-15 Published:2026-05-30

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摘要：

在长三角一体化发展持续深入推进、住房市场波动备受关注的背景下，以住房销售面积作为住房需求的代理变量，采用时变格兰杰因果检验与TVP-VAR-DY模型，对2015—2025年上海、南京、杭州、苏州4个重点城市住房需求的关联性展开实证分析，发现4个城市住房需求波动存在“涟漪效应”，整体关联程度较高，但在2023年下半年有所降低；从波动时序来看，2023年下半年及之前，上海住房需求波动更频繁地领先于其他城市，2023年下半年及之后则更频繁地滞后；从溢出效应看，上海主要表现为住房需求波动的输入方，南京则主要为溢出方。上述研究结果揭示了长三角住房需求关联的时变特征，为这一区域的房地产市场协同治理提供了参考。

关键词: 长三角, 房地产市场, 住房需求关联, 住房需求波动

Abstract:

Against the backdrop of the continuous deepening of the Yangtze River Delta integration process and the widespread concern over housing market fluctuations, this paper empirically analyzes the correlation of housing demand in four major cities, that is, Shanghai, Nanjing, Hangzhou, and Suzhou, over the period from 2015 to 2025. It takes the floor space of housing sales as a proxy variable for housing demand and uses time-varying Granger causality tests and the TVP-VAR-DY model. The results reveal a ripple effect in the fluctuations of housing demand among the four cities, with a relatively high degree of overall correlation that declined in the second half of 2023. From a temporal perspective, before and during the second half of 2023, housing demand fluctuations in Shanghai more frequently led those in other cities, whereas after the second half of 2023, they more frequently lagged behind. Regarding spillover effects, Shanghai primarily acts as a receiver of housing demand fluctuations, while Nanjing mainly serves as a transmitter. These findings demonstrate the time-varying nature of the correlation of housing demand within the Yangtze River Delta, thereby offering insights for the coordinated governance of regional housing markets.

Key words: Yangtze River Delta, housing market, correlation of housing demand, housing demand fluctuations