华东师范大学学报(哲学社会科学版) ›› 2007, Vol. 39 ›› Issue (2): 72-77.doi: 10.16382/j.cnki.1000-5579.2007.02.012

• 金融问题研究 • 上一篇    下一篇

资本账户开放与中国国际收支的调节——基于利率—汇率联动机制的理论和实证分析

徐雪萌, 蓝发钦1   

  1. 华东师范大学 商学院, 上海 200062
  • 收稿日期:2006-11-03 出版日期:2007-03-25 发布日期:2007-03-25
  • 作者简介:徐雪萌(1983—), 女, 山东济南人, 华东师范大学商学院硕士研究生|蓝发钦(1968—), 男, 畲族, 福建龙岩人, 华东师范大学商学院教授, 博士生导师

The Opening-up of China's Capital Account and Its Adjustment of International Payment Balance——A Theory and Positive Analysis of Dynamic Linkage between Interest Rate and Exchange Rate

Xue-meng XU, Fa-qin LAN1   

  1. School of Business, East China Normal University, Shanghai 200062, China
  • Received:2006-11-03 Online:2007-03-25 Published:2007-03-25

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摘要：

我国在资本账户开放过程中的资本管制不对称, 以及我国经济的市场化程度不高, 反映在蒙代尔—弗莱明模型中, 其BP曲线斜率大于LM曲线。也就是说, 我国在固定汇率下, 货币政策、财政政策、汇率政策对国际收支的调节效应均会被削弱, 而采用灵活的浮动汇率制度则可以使政策的调节效应大大加强。因此, 继续推进资本账户自由化、加快利率和汇率机制市场化的进程, 将有利于提高中国国际收支调节的有效性。

关键词: 资本账户开放, 国际收支, 蒙代尔—弗莱明模型

Abstract:

China's asymmetric capital control during the process of opening its capital account, as well as insufficient liberalization of its economy, is reflected in the Mundel-Flemming model with the slope of BP line in M-F model bigger than LM line.Therefore, effects of monetary policy, fiscal policy and exchange rate policy will be weakened under a fixed exchange rate regime in terms of their adjustment to balance of payment.An adoption of a flexible exchange rate regime, however, will greatly enhance those effects.As a result, China is advised to proceed with opening its capital account and speed up liberalization of the interest rate and exchange rate system so as to heighten effectiveness of adjusting to its balance of payment.

Key words: capital account opening, balance of payment, M-F model

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