华东师范大学学报(哲学社会科学版) ›› 2007, Vol. 39 ›› Issue (4): 104-110.doi: 10.16382/j.cnki.1000-5579.2007.04.020

• 金融问题研究 • 上一篇    下一篇

人民币双边实际汇率与中韩贸易收支——基于时间序列数据的经验研究(1991—2005)

周延, 贾亚丽   

  1. 山东大学 经济学院，山东济南 250100
  • 收稿日期:2007-01-26 出版日期:2007-07-25 发布日期:2007-07-25
  • 作者简介:周延（1965-）,女,山东省枣庄市人,山东大学经济学院副教授,经济学博士|贾亚丽(1983-), 女, 河南省新郑市人, 山东大学经济学院国际贸易专业2004级硕士研究生

The Real Bilateral Exchange Rate of RMB and Sino-Korean Trade Balance——An Empirical Research Based on Time Series

Yan ZHOU, Ya-li JIA   

  1. College of Economics, Shandong University, Jinan 250100, Shandong, China
  • Received:2007-01-26 Online:2007-07-25 Published:2007-07-25

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摘要：

运用多元协整分析和误差修正模型, 并采用季度数据研究1991—2005年人民币双边实际汇率与中韩贸易收支的关系, 其结果表明: 长期内, 人民币双边实际汇率与中韩贸易收支之间存在稳定均衡的关系, 但是由于汇率的弹性系数较小, 人民币汇率变动对中韩贸易收支的影响有限; 短期内, 实际汇率变化对中韩双边贸易的作用没有时滞, 升(贬) 值会立即恶化(改善) 中韩贸易收支。据此可以判断, 当前人民币缓慢升值会给中韩贸易收支带来一定程度的负面影响, 但是影响不大。

关键词: 人民币汇率, 双边汇率, 实际汇率, 贸易收支, 韩国

Abstract:

Applying a co-integration and error correction model and employing bilateral data from 1991 Q1 to 2005 Q4, this paper attempts to explore the relationship between bilateral real exchange rate of RMB and Sino-Korea trade balance.The result indicates that there is a steady long-term relationship between bilateral real exchange rate of RMB and Sino-Korea trade balance.However, since the elasticity of exchange rate is too small, the change of exchange rate has a limited influence on Sino-Korea trade balance.In a short-run there is no lag on Sino-Korea trade balance processed by the real exchange rate.The slow appreciation of RMB will not bring great fluctuation to Sino-Korea trade balance.

Key words: RMB exchange rate, bilateral exchange rate, real exchange rate, trade balance

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