华东师范大学(哲学社会科学版) ›› 2016, Vol. 48 ›› Issue (4): 30-37.doi: 10.16382/ j.cnki.1000-5579.2016.04.003

• 城镇化与城市发展 • 上一篇    下一篇

新生代农民工在三四线城市定居意愿及其影响机制研究*——基于2014年长三角地区流动人口动态监测数据的考察

王伟,陈杰,艾玮依   

  1. 上海财经大学公共经济与管理学院,上海,200433;桂林航天工业学院能源与建筑环境学院,广西桂林,541004
  • 出版日期:2016-07-15 发布日期:2016-10-16
  • 通讯作者: 王伟,陈杰,艾玮依
  • 作者简介:王伟,陈杰,艾玮依
  • 基金资助:

    国家自然科学基金(面上)项目(NSF71573166)、国家自然科学基金(面上)项目(NSF71173045)、教育部哲学社会科学重大课题攻关项目(13JZD009)和广西教育厅高校科学研究项目(2013LX174,X12S016)的阶段性成果

The Settlement Willingness of New Generation of Migrant Workers in the Third- and Fourth-tier Cities as well as Its Influential Elements: Base on the Data from Dynamic Monitoring of the Floating Population in Yangtze River Delta

WANG Wei & CHEN Jie & AI Wei-yi   

  • Online:2016-07-15 Published:2016-10-16
  • Contact: WANG Wei & CHEN Jie & AI Wei-yi
  • About author:WANG Wei & CHEN Jie & AI Wei-yi

摘要:

农民工市民化是中国由传统农业社会向现代城市社会转型的核心环节。基于2014年国家人口计生委长三角地区流动人口动态监测数据,运用交互分类比较和Logistic回归模型,考察个人特征、经济特征、职业和流动特征、住房和社会保障特征以及城市特征对新生代农民工在三四线城市的定居意愿的影响及其影响机制,结果发现,年龄在28—35岁、已婚、经济收入较好、有一定事业基础、已购住房、受到一定的社会保障支持的新生代农民工在当地定居可能性较大;长三角地区三四线城市目前的产业结构对跨省流动的新生代农民工吸引力不足,国内城市分工体系一定程度上削弱了新生代农民工在小城市定居的意愿。这些结论为政府引导新生代农民工定居三四线城市,实现“城市梦”提供了新视角。

关键词: 新生代农民工, 农民工市民化, 定居意愿, 三四线城市

Abstract:

The urbanization of migrant workers is key to China’s social transformation from traditional agricultural society to modern urban society. To explore how personality, economic and professional mobility features, housing and social security, urban features and other elements influence new generation of migrant workers’ willingness to settle in the third- and fourth-tier cities of China, this paper makes cross-tabulation comparison and applies logistic regression model based on the micro-level data from the 2014 Dynamic Monitoring of the Floating Population in Yangtze River Delta, which is compiled by the NHFPC (National Health and Family Planning Committee) of the PRC. The result shows that: married migrants, aged 28 to 35 years old, with decent wages and business foundation, already owning homes and supported by social security to some extent, are more willing to settle in the local cities; industrial structure in the third- and fourth-tier cities of Yangtze River Delta is not attractive enough to trans-provincial migrants; domestic urban division system has made the new generation of migrant workers reluctant to settle in small cities. These findings will provide a new perspective to understand how government shall guide the new generation of migrant workers to settle in the third- and fourth-tier cities and help them realize their “urban dreams”.