鸡还是蛋: 中国金融发展与经济增长之关系(1992—2004年)

doi:10.16382/j.cnki.1000-5579.2006.02.016

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

在向量自回归模型框架下, 运用格兰杰(非) 因果关系分析法、弱外生变量分析法检验中国金融发展与经济增长之间的短期和长期因果关系, 结果表明, 尽管中国金融改革是滞后于实体经济部门的改革, 但在1992—2004期间, 金融发展的确已促进了经济增长。在长期, 尽管银行部门和股票市场都对经济增长有统计意义上的影响, 但股票市场对GDP的影响力明显强于银行部门对GDP的影响力。

关键词: 金融发展, 经济增长, 格兰杰(非)因果关系分析法, 弱外生变量分析法

Abstract:

This paper contributes to the empirical finance-growth literature by examining the relationship between financial depth, banking sector development, stock market development and economic growth in China.We apply Granger (non-) causality tests and weakly exogeneity test for non-stationary variables to examine short-run and long-run causality between economic growth and financial development.We find positive relationships between financial depth, banking sector development and growth.And the influence of stock market development on GDP appear to be much stronger than that of the banking development in long-run.

Key words: Financial development, Economic growth, Granger (non-) causality tests, weakly exogeneity test

中图分类号:

范学俊, 罗伯特·伦辛克, 杰·雅克伯. 鸡还是蛋: 中国金融发展与经济增长之关系(1992—2004年)[J]. 华东师范大学学报(哲学社会科学版), 2006, 38(2): 102-107.

Xue-jun FAN, Lensink Robert, Jacobs Jan. Chicken or Egg: Financial Development and Economic Growth in China, 1992—2004[J]. Journal of East China Normal University (Philosophy and Social Sciences), 2006, 38(2): 102-107.

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