Abstract: In recent years, China's credit default risk incidents have erupted, with 124 bonds defaulted in 2018 alone. Therefore, it is significant for the market development to examine the characteristics of China's credit default and select appropriate index system to scientifically predict credit default risk. Using the whole sample credit data in China's bond market by the end of September 2018 and taking the perspective of industry sensitivity, this paper reconstructs a credit default risk prediction model, which can simulate and deduce the whole market credit default risk. It also finds out the features of China's credit default risk:first, the default risk of enterprises in finance and real-estate industries is sharply increasing; second, the spatial layout of default risk presents southwards; third, local enterprises are bond issue bodies at greater risks.

Key words: credit default, default risk model, industry sensitivity