华东师范大学(哲学社会科学版) ›› 2017, Vol. 49 ›› Issue (3): 155-160.doi: 10.16382/j.cnki.1000-5579.2017.03.018

• 城镇化与城市发展研究 • 上一篇    下一篇

人口老龄化对房价影响的区域异质性研究——基于全国31个省份面板数据的实证分析

胡金星, 顾娟   

  1. 1. 华东师范大学经济与管理学部工商管理学院房地产系;
    2. 华东师范大学经济与管理学部工商管理学院房地产系, 上海 200241
  • 出版日期:2017-05-15 发布日期:2017-05-20
  • 作者简介:胡金星,经济学博士,华东师范大学经济与管理学部工商管理学院房地产系副教授;顾娟,华东师范大学经济与管理学部工商管理学院房地产系本科生(上海,200241)。
  • 基金资助:
    国家社科基金青年项目“新型城镇化背景下的住房保障体系研究”(项目编号：13CJY040)；上海市人民政府决策咨询研究课题“上海住房保障体系面临的问题与对策研究”（项目编号：2016-GZ-04）。

On the Regional Differences of the Impact of Population Aging on Housing Prices: An Empirical Study Based on Panel Data of 31 Provinces in China

HU Jin-xing, GU Juan   

  • Online:2017-05-15 Published:2017-05-20

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摘要： 在我国人口老龄化程度日益提高的背景下，研究人口老龄化对房价的影响不仅迫切而且重要。根据经济发展水平不同，把我国31个省份划分为发达地区、次发达地区和欠发达地区3个区域，运用2000-2014年的省级面板数据进行实证分析后发现：从全国层面看，人口老龄化是影响房价变动的一个重要影响因素；从区域层面看，人口老龄化对房价的影响存在着显著的差异，即发达地区人口老龄化与房价有显著的负相关性，次发达地区人口老龄化与房价有较弱的负相关性，而欠发达地区人口老龄化与房价有显著的正相关性；此外，不同区域影响房价的其他因素也存在显著的差异。因此，为更好地应对人口老龄化对我国房地产市场的冲击，促进我国房地产市场健康稳定发展，需要进一步完善我国的人口政策，促进地方经济的持续发展，使地方政府在稳定房地产市场方面发挥更大的作用。

关键词: 人口老龄化, 房价, 区域异质性

Abstract: As the population aging in China is increasingly serious, it is urgent and important to study the relationship between population aging and house price. According to different economic development levels, the 31 provinces of China are divided into developed regions, sub-developed regions and less developed regions. The empirical analysis using the 2000—2014 panel data of 31 provinces finds out that population aging and housing price are correlated at the national level, while there are significant differences of the impact of population aging on housing price at the regional level. In detail, while population aging and housing prices are positively correlated in less developed areas, they are negatively correlated in developed areas in a strong way and in sub-developed areas in a weak way. Apart from population aging, GDP per capital, population size, children's dependency ratio, urbanization rate and consumer price index all have different effects on house price in different regions. Therefore, in order to deal with the impact of population aging on real estate market, and promote the healthy and stable development of real estate market in China, the central government need to further improve the population policy, promote the sustainable development of local economy and help local governments play greater roles in the stability of local real estate market.

Key words: population aging, housing price, regional differences