华东师范大学学报(哲学社会科学版) ›› 2024, Vol. 56 ›› Issue (4): 155-177.doi: 10.16382/j.cnki.1000-5579.2024.04.014

• 中国式现代化：对外经济高质量发展 • 上一篇    

美国供应链重塑与中国外贸产业链供应链韧性

沈国兵, 王译平   

  • 接受日期:2024-06-23 出版日期:2024-07-15 发布日期:2024-07-25
  • 作者简介:沈国兵，复旦大学世界经济研究所研究员、复旦大学经济学院教授（上海，200433）|王译平，复旦大学经济学院博士研究生
  • 基金资助:
    国家社科基金重大项目“中国重点产业链供应链韧性和安全水平评估与对策研究”（项目编号：23ZDA032）。

Supply Chain Reshaping in the U.S. and Industrial and the Supply Chains’ Resilience of China’s Foreign Trade

Guobing Shen, Yiping Wang   

  • Accepted:2024-06-23 Online:2024-07-15 Published:2024-07-25

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摘要：

基于HS 6分位产品贸易数据，对美国供应链重塑下中国外贸产业链供应链韧性进行统计分析的结果显示，中国外贸产供链中游产品进口来源地较为集中，韧性欠佳；下游产品出口需求端高度集中且依赖美国市场，脆弱性突出；对于美国审查的关键行业产品产供链，中国农产品与食品生产行业的上游进口供给端、药品行业的上游进口供给端和出口需求端脆弱性相对突出。进一步地，基于三重差分计量模型实证发现，美国供应链审查显著促进了中国关键行业产品的贸易向第三方转移，韧性增强，而对中国外贸地理多元化影响不显著。这表明美国供应链审查冲击下中国关键行业产品外贸产供链韧性的提升在短期主要体现在与第三方贸易伙伴加深贸易联系，而非提升外贸地理多元化。据此，需要聚焦美国供应链重塑战略下的关键行业产品，积极构建区域产供链合作体系，拓展外贸结构多元化；提升自主创新能力，攻克进口供给端“卡脖子”技术难题，着力增强中国外贸产供链韧性和安全，从而推进中国外贸高质量发展。

关键词: 美国供应链审查, 产供链（产业链供应链）, 产供链韧性, 第三方贸易份额指数, 贸易地理多元化指数

Abstract:

Based on HS 6-digit product trade data, this paper conducts a statistical analysis on the resilience of China’s foreign trade industrial and supply chains (ISC) under the supply chain reshaping in the U.S. It shows that the import sources of midstream products in China’s foreign trade ISC are relatively concentrated and have poor resilience; the export demand side of downstream products is highly concentrated and dependent on the U.S. market and prominently fragile. For the key industry products’ industrial and supply chains reviewed by Biden government, the upstream import supply side of China’s agricultural and food production industries and the upstream import supply side and upstream export demand side of the pharmaceutical industry are relatively vulnerable. Moreover, the results derived from Triple Difference Measurement Model show that the U.S. supply chain review significantly promotes trade transfer of China’s key ISC products to the third parties and increases resilience, while it has no significant effect on the geographic diversification of China’s foreign trade. This means that the improvement in China’s key ISC resilience after U.S. supply chain review is mainly reflected in deepening trade links with third-party trade partners in the short term, rather than promoting the geographical diversification of foreign trade. Therefore, it is necessary to focus on the key industry products under the U.S. supply chain reshaping strategy, actively build a regional production and supply chain cooperation system, and expand the diversification of foreign trade structure. We should enhance our capacity for independent innovation, overcome the “stuck neck” technical problems on the import supply side, and strive to enhance the toughness and safety of China’s foreign trade production and industrial and supply chains, so as to promote the high-quality development of China’s foreign trade.

Key words: U.S. supply chain review, industrial and supply chains, resilience of industrial and supply chains, third-party trade share index, trade geography diversification index