Journal of East China Normal University (Philosoph ›› 2011, Vol. 43 ›› Issue (6): 123-130.
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ZHAN Meng-Ya, XU Wei
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Abstract: The paper uses an ARMAARCH model with three different types of noise to fit Shanghai and Shenzhen stock index return distribution. The result of the goodness of fit test with the stochastic simulation method shows that the ARMAARCH model with fractal Gaussian noise can characterize the volatility of Shanghai and Shenzhen stock returns, such as long dependence, fat tails and volatility clustering. Further, two different types of CopulaARMAARCH models are used to fit the dependence between Shanghai and Shenzhen stock indexes, and the result of the goodness of fit test with the stochastic simulation method shows that the CopulaARMAARCH model with fractal Gaussian noise can better characterize the VaR of volatility of Shanghai and Shenzhen stock returns.
ZHAN Meng-Ya, XU Wei. The Volatility of Shanghai and Shenzhen Stock Indexes and Its Dynamic VaR Measurement with the Copula Dependence[J]. Journal of East China Normal University (Philosoph, 2011, 43(6): 123-130.
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https://xbzs.ecnu.edu.cn/EN/Y2011/V43/I6/123