Journal of East China Normal University (Philosoph ›› 2014, Vol. 46 ›› Issue (3): 133-139.

• 人口与社会经济发展研究 • Previous Articles     Next Articles

A Study on the development trend of aging population and its influence factors based on Grey Theory ———Taking An Hui province as an example

Jiang shi-quan   

  1. College of Economic and Management, Nanjing University of Aeronautics and Astronautics,Nanjing 210016, P.R.China
  • Online:2014-05-15 Published:2014-09-29
  • Contact: Jiang shi-quan
  • About author:Jiang shi-quan

Abstract: The aging of the population has become a huge challenge for Anhui Province,In this paper, based on statistical yearbook data in anhui province from 2001 to 2012.Using GM (1,1) model to predict the development of population aging in Anhui Province in the future forty years, Prediction results show that anhui province aging trend will experience a rapid phase, accelerated phase and stable stage of severe three stages in the next forty years.In order to better cope with an ageing population, The population aging related factors be analyzed by Using grey correlation model .Finally, the policy implications are presented combined the GM (1, 1) forecast model and relational model the result