A New Test on the Relationship between Population Aging and Housing Price in China:From the Perspective of Housing Reform Dividend Affect

doi:10.16382/j.cnki.1000-5579.2017.03.016

Abstract

Abstract:

A soaring urban housing price coincides with a steady growing aging population in China after the housing reform in 1998. Is this correlation accidentally or intrinsically decided? A preliminary conclusion that population aging dampens housing price is drawn from a theoretical housing price equilibrium model. Findings based on Chinese province-level panel data from 1999 to 2013 and Threshold Model also indicate that the effect of population aging on housing price is negative as a whole, but shows heterogeneity in different stages. The major reason for this phenomenon may be the influx of old generation's housing wealth benefited from housing reform into the housing market through intergenerational transference. Therefore, the inhibitory action of population aging on housing price is dull in the special historical phase. However, population aging will inevitably curb the property price as the gradual exhaustion of reform dividend with time. Classified researches certify this conjecture.

Key words: population aging, housing price, housing reform dividend

HU Ming-zhi, NONG Hui-fu, CHEN Jie. A New Test on the Relationship between Population Aging and Housing Price in China:From the Perspective of Housing Reform Dividend Affect[J]. Journal of East China Normal University (Philosoph, 2017, 49(3): 132-144.

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