Population Aging, Birth Rate and Housing Price: Based on the Regional Characteristics of the Real Estate Market

doi:10.16382/j.cnki.1000-5579.2017.03.017

Abstract

Abstract: This paper classifies the development level of real estate market in 31 provinces in China through system clustering and distance discrimination, and then carries out qualitative description and trend comparison on the relationship of regional population aging, birth rate and house price. Together with the empirical research of the regional panel data, this paper shows the "triangular relationship" of population aging, birth rate (as well as population growth) and housing price as follows: the short-term population aging will restrain housing price, the short-term birth rate will boost the rising of house price, and both of them have a regional "reverse" phenomenon; the aging of the population and the decline of the birth rate restrain population growth, and from the perspective of population growth, the "neutralization effect" between them will make housing price decrease in the foreseeable future. Therefore, reasonable control and guidance on housing price need to pay attention to demographic factors, encourage population mobility, help to discharge the "flood" of house price, make a plan of population growth and lower the anticipation of housing price.

Key words: population aging, housing price, birth rate, population structure, regional characteristics

WANG Xian-zhu, WU Yi-dong. Population Aging, Birth Rate and Housing Price: Based on the Regional Characteristics of the Real Estate Market[J]. Journal of East China Normal University (Philosoph, 2017, 49(3): 145-154.

References

陈国进、李威、周洁,2013,《人口结构与房价关系研究——基于代际交叠模型和我国省际面板的分析》,《经济学家》第10期。
郭娜,2015,《老龄化、城镇化与我国房地产价格研究——基于面板平滑转换模型的分析》,《当代经济科学》第2期。
郭娜、吴敬,2016,《人口老龄化对我国房地产价格影响研究》,《价格理论与实践》第5期。
孔艳芳,2015,《房价、消费能力与人口城镇化缺口研究》,《中国人口科学》第5期。
况伟大,2010,《预期、投机与中国城市房价波动》,《经济研究》第9期。
李祥、高波,2013,《人口抚养比、房价波动与居民消费——基于面板数据联立方程模型》,《经济与管理研究》第1期。
李祥、李勇刚,2013,《人口抚养比、房价波动与居民消费——基于面板数据联立方程模型》,《经济与管理研究》第1期。
季晓旭,2016,《人口老龄化、房价与区域城乡收入差距——基于我国省际面板数据的实证研究》,《财经科学》第8期。
刘晓婷、张敬石、胡雍,2016,《房价上涨对人口出生率的影响——基于中国1999-2013年数据的实证研究》,《重庆理工大学学报(社会科学版)》第1期。
刘学良、吴璟、邓永恒,2016,《人口冲击、婚姻和住房市场》,《南开经济研究》第1期。
王昇,2014,《人口红利和房价的关系——基于动态面板数据模型下对上海等五市的实证研究》,复旦大学硕士学位论文。
王先柱、骆永民,2013,《人力资本水平提升与房价上涨关系刍议》,《现代经济探讨》第4期。
肖洋、宋旭,2014,《应关注人口年龄结构变化对我国住房市场的影响》,《经济纵横》第12期。
徐建炜、徐奇渊、何帆,2012,《房价上涨背后的人口结构因素:国际经验与中国证据》,《世界经济》第1期。
杨华磊、温兴春、何凌云,2015,《出生高峰、人口结构与住房市场》,《人口研究》第3期。
叶永刚、王凌伟、魏海瑞,2016,《人口年龄结构、预期与中国房价:基于需求方的视角》,《统计与决策》第4期。
于静静、周京奎,2016,《房产税、房价与住房供给结构——基于上海、重庆微观数据的分析》,《经济问题探索》第1期。
张冲,2014,《中国人口结构对住房需求的影响》,西南财经大学博士学位论文。
张传勇,2014,《房价波动收入分配效应的区域差异分析——基于中国省际面板数据的实证研究》,《华东师范大学学报(哲学社会科学版)》第1期。
邹瑾,2014,《人口老龄化与房价——基于中国省级面板数据的分析》,《华东经济管理》第7期。
邹瑾,2014,《人口老龄化与房价波动——来自中国的经验证据》,《财经科学》第6期。
邹瑾、于焘华、王大波,2015,《人口老龄化与房价的区域差异研究——基于面板协整模型的实证分析》,《金融研究》第11期。
Eddie C.M. Hui, Xian Zheng and Jiang Hu., 2012, "Housing Price, Elderly Dependency and Fertility Behaviour", Habitat International, Vol.36, No.2.
Green R. and Hendershott H., 1996, "Age, Housing Demand, and Real House Prices", Regional Science and Urban Economics, Vol.26. No.5.
Hiller N. and Lerbs O.W., 2016, "Aging and Urban House Prices", Regional Science and Urban Economics, Vol.60.
Martin R.F., 2005, "The Baby Boom:Predictability in House Prices and Interest Rates", IFDP Working Papers, No.847.
Takáts E., 2012, "Aging and House Prices", Journal of Housing Economics, Vol.21, No.2.

[1]	Jian-yun WANG, Ren-yao ZHONG. On the Health-related Quality of Life and Classified Social Security System of Older Adults Living Alone in Urban Community [J]. Journal of East China Normal University (Philosophy and Social Sciences), 2022, 54(4): 164-174.
[2]	Xian-zhu WANG, Bei QIAO. “To Be” or “Not To Be”：On the Impact of Rising House Prices on the Formation of Zombie Enterprises [J]. Journal of East China Normal University (Philosophy and Social Sciences), 2021, 53(6): 152-164.
[3]	Fang ZHANG. The Effect of Economic Policy Uncertainty on the Fluctuation of House Prices：Evidence from Cities of Yangtze River Economic Belt [J]. Journal of East China Normal University (Philosophy and Social Sciences), 2021, 53(6): 165-176.
[4]	Xi-xi ZHANG. Does the Bubble of Housing Price Inhibit the Fertility Rate Recovery？：On the Dynamic Causality between Fertility Rate and Housing Price [J]. Journal of East China Normal University (Philosophy and Social Sciences), 2021, 53(2): 164-175.
[5]	KUANG Wei-da, YU Jia-wei. Homeownership and Innovation: Evidence from China's 69 Large- and Middle-sized Cities [J]. Journal of East China Normal University (Philosoph, 2019, 51(5): 60-66.
[6]	CHEN Zhuo, CHEN Jie. Housing Tenure Structure and Housing Price: From the Perspective of Tenant Share of Urban Families [J]. Journal of East China Normal University (Philosoph, 2018, 50(1): 136-148.
[7]	HU Ming-zhi, NONG Hui-fu, CHEN Jie. A New Test on the Relationship between Population Aging and Housing Price in China:From the Perspective of Housing Reform Dividend Affect [J]. Journal of East China Normal University (Philosoph, 2017, 49(3): 132-144.
[8]	HU Jin-xing, GU Juan. On the Regional Differences of the Impact of Population Aging on Housing Prices: An Empirical Study Based on Panel Data of 31 Provinces in China [J]. Journal of East China Normal University (Philosoph, 2017, 49(3): 155-160.
[9]	WANG Sheng, HUANG Zhi-lan. The Relationship among Industrial Structure, Immigrant Structure and Housing Price [J]. Journal of East China Normal University (Philosoph, 2017, 49(1): 139-145.
[10]	HU Cao, FAN Hong-zhong. Has High Housing Price Inhibited the Entry of New Firms?: Evidence from China's Industrial Firms [J]. Journal of East China Normal University (Philosoph, 2017, 49(1): 146-153.
[11]	QUAN Lin. Veblen Effect and Game Analysis of Housing: A New Explanation for the Volume and Price Going Up Simultaneously [J]. Journal of East China Normal University (Philosoph, 2017, 49(1): 164-171.
[12]	SUN Lei, CHANG Tian-jiao, GUO Quan-yu. Study on the Spatial Distribution of Population Aging and the Synchronization with Economic Development in China [J]. Journal of East China Normal University (Philosoph, 2014, 46(3): 123-132.
[13]	ZHANG Chuan-Yong. Regional Differences on Income Distribution Effects of Price Fluctuations: Empirical Study Based on inter-Provincial Panel Data in China [J]. Journal of East China Normal University (Philosoph, 2014, 46(1): 113-120.
[14]	SHI You-wen, WANG Ming-fu and LIN Xiao-hong. On the Impact of Interest Rate Fluctuation on the Housing Prices in the Framework of Partial Balance Analysis [J]. Journal of East China Normal University (Philosoph, 2014, 46(1): 128-137.
[15]	DING Zu-yu. On the Differentiation of Housing Price to Income Ratio in Chinese Cities [J]. Journal of East China Normal University (Philosoph, 2013, 45(3): 121-127.