华东师范大学学报(哲学社会科学版) ›› 2026, Vol. 58 ›› Issue (2): 160-171.doi: 10.16382/j.cnki.1000-5579.2026.02.014

• 中国式现代化：高质量发展研究 • 上一篇    

国家创新型城市试点政策对城市经济韧性的影响研究

李健, 谢华育, 鞠明洋   

  • 接受日期:2026-02-09 出版日期:2026-03-15 发布日期:2026-03-31
  • 作者简介:李健，上海社会科学院研究员（上海，200020）
    谢华育，上海社会科学院经济研究所研究员（上海，200020）
    鞠明洋，通讯作者，上海社会科学院研究生院硕士研究生（上海，200235）
  • 基金资助:
    上海社会科学院“习近平经济思想与中国经济学自主知识体系”资深研究员创新团队项目。

The Impact of National Innovative City Pilot Policy on Urban Economic Resilience

Jian Li, Huayu Xie, Mingyang Ju   

  • Accepted:2026-02-09 Online:2026-03-15 Published:2026-03-31

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摘要：

在全球经贸秩序动荡背景下，我国城市经济正经历深度调整期，提升城市经济韧性成为高质量发展的重要议题。近年来，中央强调以高质量发展的确定性应对外部不确定性，科技创新成为提升城市经济韧性的重要路径。本文基于2004—2023年中国274个地级及以上城市面板数据，运用双重机器学习模型，实证检验国家创新型城市试点政策对城市经济韧性的影响。研究表明：（1）试点政策使城市经济韧性显著提升，在实施第四年后政策效果显现并持续增强，对此展开的稳健性检验也证实了这一结论。（2）国家创新型城市试点政策通过集聚效应、技术创新和产业结构高级化，增强城市经济韧性。（3）该政策效果具有显著的异质性，在非资源型城市、发达城市以及东部地区城市该效果显著为正，而在资源型城市、欠发达城市、中西部地区城市该效果不显著，在东北地区城市该效果甚至为负。由此引申出的政策建议是：延长政策周期与强化中长期支持，以更好稀释政策滞后效应；推动制造业与服务业深度融合，完善产业结构“双重升级”的路径；以技术创新为政策核心，培育城市经济韧性撬动点；因地制宜扩展试点范围，提升政策的可及性与公平性。

关键词: 国家创新型城市试点政策, 城市经济韧性, 人口聚集, 技术创新, 产业结构高级化

Abstract:

Against the backdrop of geopolitical conflicts, tariff wars and trade protectionism, as well as technological blockades causing turbulence in the global economic and trade order, China’s urban economy is undergoing a period of profound adjustment. Enhancing the resilience of urban economies has become an important topic for high-quality development. In recent years, the central government has emphasized using the certainty of high-quality development to cope with external uncertainties, and scientific and technological innovation has become an important path to enhance urban economic resilience. Based on panel data from 274 prefecture-level and above cities in China from 2004 to 2023, this paper uses a double machine learning model to empirically test the impact of the national innovative city pilot policy on urban economic resilience. The research shows that: (1) Pilot policy has significantly enhanced urban economic resilience, with policy effects becoming apparent in the fourth year of the implementation and continuing to strengthen, which has also been confirmed by the robustness tests; (2) national innovative city pilot policy enhances urban economic resilience through agglomeration effects, technological innovation, and industrial structure upgrading; (3) the policy effects exhibit significant heterogeneity: they are significantly positive in non-resource-based cities, developed cities, and cities in eastern regions, insignificant in resource-based cities, less developed cities, and cities in central and western regions, and even negative in cities in the northeastern region are even negative. Thus, this paper puts forward the following policy recommendations: extend the policy cycle and enhance medium- and long-term support to fully release the lagged effects of the policy, promote the deep integration of manufacturing and services to facilitate dual upgrading of the industrial structure, place technological innovation at the core of the policy to cultivate key leverage points for enhancing urban economic resilience, and expand the pilot coverage according to local conditions to improve the accessibility and equity of the policy.

Key words: national innovative city pilot policy, urban economic resilience, population agglomeration, technological innovation, industrial structure upgrading