华东师范大学(哲学社会科学版) ›› 2014, Vol. 46 ›› Issue (3): 123-132.

• 人口与社会经济发展研究 • 上一篇    下一篇

中国人口老龄化空间分布特征及与经济发展的同步性研究

孙蕾,常天骄,郭全毓   

  1. 华东师范大学金融与统计学院，上海，２００２４１
  • 出版日期:2014-05-15 发布日期:2014-09-29
  • 通讯作者: 孙蕾,常天骄,郭全毓
  • 作者简介:孙蕾,常天骄,郭全毓
  • 基金资助:

    本文为国家社科基金项目（12CRK003）和上海市哲学社会科学规划项目（2011EGB001）的阶段性成果。

Study on the Spatial Distribution of Population Aging and the Synchronization with Economic Development in China

SUN Lei, CHANG Tian-jiao, GUO Quan-yu   

  1. School of Finance and Statistics, East China Normal University, Shanghai 200241, China
  • Online:2014-05-15 Published:2014-09-29
  • Contact: SUN Lei, CHANG Tian-jiao, GUO Quan-yu
  • About author:SUN Lei, CHANG Tian-jiao, GUO Quan-yu

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摘要： 根据我国１９９０年、２０００年和２０１０年三次人口普查的数据，分析我国人口老龄化现状以及老龄化趋势和经济发展趋势之间的关系，并进一步采用空间自相关模型和新构的经济自相关模型，用全局Ｍｏｒａｎ′ｓＩ指数刻画全局自相关，用局部Ｍｏｒａｎ指数和局部Ｇ系数刻画局部自相关，分别探讨中国各区域老龄化的空间相关性和经济相关性，其结论表明：中国的人口老龄化存在正的空间相关性和经济相关性，并且老少比这一指标对经济水平的依赖性大于对空间位置的依赖性，即老龄化的地区差异中经济发展水平较空间位置的影响更甚。因此，要根据经济水平进行区分，因地制宜地制定老龄化的应对策略。

关键词: 人口老龄化, 老少比, 经济发展, 空间自相关, 经济自相关

Abstract: According to three census data in 1990, 2000 and 2010, we analyze the current situation of population aging in China and the relationship between the trends of aging and economic development. Then we use the spatial autocorrelation model and innovative economic autocorrelation model, including global and local Moran indices, Getis-ord local G, to investigate the spatial correlation and economic relevance of the regional population aging. The conclusions show that the spatial correlation and economic relevance are both significantly positive, and the aged-child ratio depends more on economic level than spatial location, which means economic development has greater influence on the regional differences of population aging than spatial location. Therefore, the government should make policies according to different economic level.

Key words: population aging, aged-child ratio, economic development, spatial autocorrelation, economic autocorrelation