Does the Bubble of Housing Price Inhibit the Fertility Rate Recovery？：On the Dynamic Causality between Fertility Rate and Housing Price

doi:10.16382/j.cnki.1000-5579.2021.02.015

Abstract

Abstract:

Population and housing are among the keys to the high quality of economic development and social harmony and progress. By analyzing the dynamic change law of the correlation between fertility rate and housing price, this paper argues that the policy of adjusting the fertility of different groups has more bi-directional policy meaning of the coordinated development of population and economy. This paper selects the data of average housing price and birth rate from 2000 to 2018 with a long-time chain, and uses the rolling window causality test method of boot-splitting sample to test. The results show that the two-way influence of fertility rate and housing price is time-varying. The final effect of fertility rate on housing price depends on the game result of wealth effect and crowding out effect. The rapid rise of housing price has a significant inhibiting effect on fertility rate in a specific period of time. Relevant government departments can take appropriate measures for urban people of childbearing age and rural residents with and without a house, including appropriately relaxing the purchase restrictions for people of childbearing age having a house or the ability to buy a house, granting them preferential loan interest rates and housing reconstruction subsidies. We will build commercial housing with “stable rent” in line with local conditions, and provide rent and purchase discounts for people of childbearing age according to the number of children they have. We shall also improve the flexible homestead allocation mechanism in rural areas to break down fertility barriers.

Key words: fertility rate, housing price, population, housing, causality test of boots pulling, wealth effect, crowding out

Xi-xi ZHANG. Does the Bubble of Housing Price Inhibit the Fertility Rate Recovery？：On the Dynamic Causality between Fertility Rate and Housing Price[J]. Journal of East China Normal University (Philosophy and Social Sciences), 2021, 53(2): 164-175.

Figures/Tables 7

References 0

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原假设	生育率不影响房地产价格		房地产价格不影响生育率
检验结果	统计量	P值	统计量	P值
检验结果	1.851	0.450	11.697	0.010

	BR		HP		VAR系统参数
	统计量	拔靴P值	统计量	拔靴P值	统计量	拔靴P值
Sup-F	65.057	0.000	10.530	0.084	21.653	0.214
Ave-F	13.532	0.000	3.236	0.803	9.025	0.580
Exp-F	28.560	0.000	2.438	0.661	8.029	0.098
LC	1.146	0.000	0.352	0.738	1.498	0.410

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