华东师范大学(哲学社会科学版) ›› 2012, Vol. 44 ›› Issue (4): 35-48.

• 冷战史研究 • 上一篇    下一篇

保障苏联在远东的战略利益
——试论朝鲜战争起因与斯大林的决策动机

沈志华   

  1. 华东师范大学冷战国际史研究中心, 上海, 200241
  • 出版日期:2012-07-15 发布日期:2012-09-12
  • 通讯作者: 沈志华
  • 作者简介:沈志华

Safeguarding the Soviet Union’s Strategic Interests in Far East: On the Origins of the Korean War and Stalin’s Decisionmaking Motive

SHEN Zhi-hua   

  • Online:2012-07-15 Published:2012-09-12
  • Contact: SHEN Zhi-hua
  • About author:SHEN Zhi-hua

摘要: 斯大林在1949年底还千方百计阻止北朝鲜使用武力实现统一,1950年1月底却突然改变主意,全力支持金日成的主张。对于斯大林的决策动机而言,美国是否会干预在朝鲜发生的战争,只是条件,而非目标;把美国的注意力吸引到远东,只是结果,而非动机;鼓励和推动亚洲革命,也是一种表面现象,并非苏联外交战略的转变。中苏同盟条约的签订将使苏联失去通向太平洋的唯一的出海口和不冻港,这无疑是一种战略利益的重大损失,其结果将导致苏联在亚洲失去战略依托。斯大林同意金日成对南朝鲜发动进攻,就是想通过这次军事行动来保障(或重建)苏联在远东地区传统战略的支撑点。在朝鲜半岛出现的武装冲突,无论其结局如何,都将保证斯大林在远东设定的战略目标。

关键词: 朝鲜战争, 亚洲革命, 中苏同盟

Abstract: By the end of 1949, Stalin had used every conceivable stratagem in order to prevent North Korea from launching a war of unification against South Korea. But by late January 1950, he suddenly had a change of mind and decided to wholeheartedly support Kim Il sung to achieve this goal. Whether or not the United States would intervene was only a precondition, not the end. To draw U.S. attention to the Far East was the end result, but not the motive. To encourage and promote the Asian revolution was only the superficial phenomenon, but not the shift in Soviet diplomatic strategy. The signing of the Sino Soviet alliance treaty in 1950 meant that the Soviet Union would lose its only exit to the Pacific Ocean and warm water port. Without doubt, this would cause great loss to Soviet strategic interests. As a result, the Soviet Union would lose its strategic backing in Asia. The reason why Stalin decided to support Kim Il sung’s attack on South Korea was that he hoped to regain, or safeguard Soviet tradition strategic prop in the Far East through this military action. No matter what the outcome might be, the military conflict in the Korean peninsula would guarantee Soviet strategic aim as designed by Stalin.