华东师范大学(哲学社会科学版) ›› 2014, Vol. 46 ›› Issue (1): 128-137.

• 房地产经济研究 • 上一篇    下一篇

局部均衡分析框架下利率变动对房价的影响：理论与实证

施有文 王明甫 林晓虹   

  1. 1.华东师范大学商学院；2.华东师范大学学报编辑部；上海，200241/200062
  • 出版日期:2014-01-15 发布日期:2014-03-02
  • 通讯作者: 施有文，王明甫，林晓虹
  • 作者简介:施有文，王明甫，林晓虹

On the Impact of Interest Rate Fluctuation on the Housing Prices in the Framework of Partial Balance Analysis

SHI You-wen, WANG Ming-fu and LIN Xiao-hong   

  • Online:2014-01-15 Published:2014-03-02
  • Contact: SHI You-wen, WANG Ming-fu and LIN Xiao-hong
  • About author:SHI You-wen, WANG Ming-fu and LIN Xiao-hong

RichHTML

8

PDF

1947

摘要： 基于房地产市场需求方的结构状况，通过构建一个购房者、开发商的局部均衡的理论模型，考察利率变动对房价的影响，结果显示，利率变动对房价的影响方向取决于购房者的组成情况，当贷款购房的消费者占比大于临界值时，提高利率将导致房价下降。使用我国35个大中城市2000—2012年的面板数据进行的GMM估计表明，短期内实际利率的变动与房价存在反向关系，尽管这种影响是微弱的，但却验证了理论分析结论。实证检验还发现，其他宏观经济变量（政策、世界经济状况）对房价存在显著的影响，因此，利率政策的运用应当与其他政策措施相配套，才能达到调控房地产市场的目标。

关键词: 利率, 房价, 局部均衡分析, GMM估计

Abstract: Based on the structure of consumers in the real estate market, this paper constructs a theoretical mode that balances partially the property purchasers and developers and investigates the impact of interest rate fluctuation on the housing prices. The result shows that the impact of interest rate fluctuation on the housing prices depends on the structure of purchasers. When the number of purchasers who get loans from banks is larger than the critical point, the increase of interest rate causes the decrease of housing prices. The GMM estimation of the panel data of China’s 35 large and middle sized cities in 2000-2012 shows the actual interest rate fluctuation in a short term has a reverse relation with housing prices. Although the impact is weak, it verifies the conclusion of our theoretical analysis. Empirical tests also find out that other macroeconomic variables, including policies and world economy, have remarkable impacts on housing prices. Therefore, the interest rate policies should be implemented with other measurements in order to regulate and control the real estate market.