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Impacts of Inflation and Real Estate Prices on Real Economy
----An Analysis Based on the DSGE Model of Different Monetary Policy Rules
LI Wei, ZHANG Zhi-Chao
2011, 43 (4):
82-94.
This paper tries to apply the DSGE model, while introducing sticky prices and credit constraints, to analyze impacts of different monetary policy rules, inflation and real estate prices on the real economy. The results suggest: (1) When the tightening monetary policy shocks once occur, the output, consumptive demand, investment and credit lending will show a certain degree of decline. And if the monetary policy takes consideration of the real estate price, the shocks on the real economy will be relatively weak. (2) If the expansive Taylor rule (taking the real estate price factor into account) is implemented, the impact of inflation on the real economy will become more favorable. At the same time, the modest declining of the real estate price will help the real economy to sustain healthy and stable development. So the macro-authority should implement the monetary policy dominated by the expansive Taylor rule, remain relatively modest inflation and prevent the real estate market price volatility so as to effectively circumvent the potential impact of financial risk on the real economy. Finally the authorities should focus on shock differences and complexities of all kinds of macro-economic variables and find an optimal instant to introduce desirable macro-controlled measures.
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