A Correlation Analysis of Housing Demand in Key Cities Under the Background of the Integrated Development of the Yangtze River Delta

doi:10.16382/j.cnki.1000-5579.2026.03.015

Abstract

Abstract:

Against the backdrop of the continuous deepening of the Yangtze River Delta integration process and the widespread concern over housing market fluctuations, this paper empirically analyzes the correlation of housing demand in four major cities, that is, Shanghai, Nanjing, Hangzhou, and Suzhou, over the period from 2015 to 2025. It takes the floor space of housing sales as a proxy variable for housing demand and uses time-varying Granger causality tests and the TVP-VAR-DY model. The results reveal a ripple effect in the fluctuations of housing demand among the four cities, with a relatively high degree of overall correlation that declined in the second half of 2023. From a temporal perspective, before and during the second half of 2023, housing demand fluctuations in Shanghai more frequently led those in other cities, whereas after the second half of 2023, they more frequently lagged behind. Regarding spillover effects, Shanghai primarily acts as a receiver of housing demand fluctuations, while Nanjing mainly serves as a transmitter. These findings demonstrate the time-varying nature of the correlation of housing demand within the Yangtze River Delta, thereby offering insights for the coordinated governance of regional housing markets.

Key words: Yangtze River Delta, housing market, correlation of housing demand, housing demand fluctuations

Rong Yan, Baixue Xiao, Lili Zhang. A Correlation Analysis of Housing Demand in Key Cities Under the Background of the Integrated Development of the Yangtze River Delta[J]. J. East China Norm. Univ. Philos. Soc. Sci, 2026, 58(3): 167-181.

Figures/Tables 10

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变量	样本量	均值	标准差	最小值	最大值	1%分位数	99%分位数
上海住房需求	132	285.28	118.82	11.93	759.39	14.31	716.53
南京住房需求	132	130.63	55.39	26.20	327.36	37.80	323.33
杭州住房需求	132	140.57	56.66	16.13	413.55	33.55	320.38
苏州住房需求	132	105.95	43.28	28.44	266.64	33.84	234.21

	上海住房需求	南京住房需求	杭州住房需求	苏州住房需求
上海住房需求	1
南京住房需求	0.741^***	1
杭州住房需求	0.570^***	0.723^***	1
苏州住房需求	0.656^***	0.697^***	0.534^***	1

	ADF	PP	ADF (1)	PP (1)
上海住房需求	−3.155^*(0.0937)	−5.888^***(0.0000)	−3.788^**(0.0172)	−19.048^*** (0.0000)
南京住房需求	−3.137^*(0.0976)	−4.802^***(0.0005)	−4.423^***(0.0020)	−14.822^***(0.0000)
杭州住房需求	−4.347^***(0.0027)	−6.772^***(0.0000)	−8.474^***(0.0000)	−17.114^***(0.0000)
苏州住房需求	−3.575^**(0.0320)	−7.613^***(0.0000)	−5.409^***(0.0000)	−19.927^*** (0.0000)

	上海	杭州	苏州	南京	FROM
上海	24.90	20.45	21.08	33.57	75.1
杭州	18.18	29.38	21.53	30.92	70.62
苏州	14.42	19.49	25.85	40.24	74.15
南京	17.16	34.72	20.16	27.95	72.05
TO	49.76	74.66	62.77	104.72	291.91
NET	−25.33	4.03	−11.38	32.68	TCI:72.98
NPT	0	2	2	2

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